Summary

• 2021 GDP estimate +5.88%, vs previous forecast +5.46%
• 2022 GDP estimate +3.69%
• Q2 growth revised down to +7.43% y/y, from +7.47%
• 2021 exports estimate +28.15% y/y, from +20.4%
• 2022 exports estimate +5.22% y/y

TAIPEI, Aug 13 (Reuters) – Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has vowed to Taiwan’s economy will grow at its strongest rate in more than a decade in 2021, according to the statistics office, which upgraded the island’s prognosis on a robust resurgence in exports.

The modification came as the statistics office raised its export growth prediction for this year, citing a surge in global demand for the island’s technological items during the COVID-19 pandemic, when workers and students raced to acquire cellphones, tablets, and laptops.

GDP is predicted to grow 5.88 percent this year, the quickest rate since it grew 10.25 percent in 2010, according to the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics. This is up from a June prediction of 5.46 percent.

In its first projection for 2022, the office predicted that GDP would increase at a slower 3.69 percent following year.

“The epidemic’s distant business potential have spurred global organizations’ digital transformation, and demand for technological products is robust,” the statistics agency stated.

Despite concerns about virus variations, the future of global monetary and fiscal policy amid rising inflation fears, and the possibility of international carbon taxes, it sees a positive prognosis for Taiwan next year.

The office stated that Taiwan is ready to profit from the global economic recovery, especially with the domestic production of more advanced chip nodes coming online.

Taiwan’s exports are a leading indicator of demand for global tech giants like Apple Inc (AAPL.O), as the island is a key supplier of semiconductors, a global scarcity of which has spooked companies like automakers while boosting Taiwanese corporate profits.

Exports are expected to increase 28.15 percent year over year in 2021, up from a previous prediction of a 20.4 percent increase.

Exports are expected to grow 5.22 percent year over year next year, according to the report.

GDP increased by a revised 7.43 percent year over year in the second quarter, down from a previous reading of 7.47 percent, according to the agency. A rapid surge of domestic COVID-19 cases that began in May weighed on consumption, slowing growth from 8.92 percent in the first quarter.

Since then, the outbreak has been limited, and limitations on personal meetings and in-restaurant dining have been loosened.